Free agent falsities: sorting fact from fiction

Dizzy
I'm so dizzy my head is spinning
Like a whirlpool, it never ends.

Tommy Roe, circa 1969

🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈

That’s the feeling many of us have as another feeding frenzy descended on the NFL with the start of the 2025 league year this week.

On Monday alone, the first day of the negotiating period (please, don’t call it “legal tampering” because if it’s tampering, it can’t be legal), 70 unrestricted free agents reached agreements on contracts with new teams.

By Wednesday night, 124 had changed teams, and 107 UFAs had re-signed with their own team. Another 19 were signed or terms after being released, and 14 players had changed teams in 12 trades.

What really spins heads, though, is trying to sort out and make sense of the misleading and often inaccurate contract information foisted upon us by a handful of league “insiders” who get group texts from agents and then scurry to be the first to post it on social media.

They don’t ask questions because that would slow down the speeding train. We see frequent reports of contract values termed “up to” or “max,” which is shorthand for including incentives.

There wouldn’t be an issue if the base value and incentives were explained, but that doesn’t happen.

Thus, we get a report that the three-year contract cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. signed with the Minnesota Vikings was worth $66 million when it is really $54 million because there are $12 million in incentives. And that report didn’t even refer to “up to” or “max.”

I get it; $54 million is still a boatload of money. But when the average per year is bandied about so much, anyone would agree that $18 million yearly is quite different from $22.

But the reports make the agent look good, and that’s what the game is all about. You know, I’ll scratch your back if you scratch mine. The reports have reached the point where they now routinely name the agents in their social media posts. Please.

That example was the most egregious, but it happens on a much smaller scale. The contract for Dallas Cowboys wide receiver/return specialist KaVontae Turpin was hailed as worth $18 million over three years. Still, it turns out to be a $13.5 million contract that includes $4.5 million of incentives.

The average per year is another part of the game when many contracts are not played out to their entirety. Guaranteed money is the most important factor, but reports of that aspect also frequently fall short of reality.

The agents aren’t asked how much of it is fully guaranteed at signing. All of the real numbers are found out in a few days, but what’s remembered is the initial report.

Take the contract for former Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackle Milton Williams, who agreed to terms on a four-year, $104 million contract with the New England Patriots. That happened the same day as former teammate and edge rusher Josh Sweat signed a four-year, $76.4 million contract with the Arizona Cardinals.

Both should send some of their money to defensive tackle Jalen Carter. Carter was double- and triple-teamed during the Super Bowl, which allowed others to wreak havoc on the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense. In the third year of his rookie contract, Carter will be paid a bit more than $3 million this year.

By the way, reacting to that loss, the Chiefs signed tackle Jaylon Moore this week. Who is Jaylon Moore, some of you might be asking? A fifth-round pick of the San Francisco 49ers in 2021, Moore has started 12 games in four seasons, yet Kansas City awarded him a two-year, $30 million contract with $21.24 million fully guaranteed.

Now, the Chiefs believe they are getting a diamond in the rough. And he might be. But is that worth $30 million?

In the NFL these days, there is the adrenaline rush of free agency, and with rising salary caps, teams act like they’re playing with Monopoly money—just another “game.”

But I digress.

The Williams deal was said to include $63 million guaranteed. Not quite. That’s because $51 million is guaranteed at signing, and another $12 million is guaranteed at signing for injury only. The deal becomes fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2027 league year when no more guaranteed dollars exist.

This means that if Williams doesn’t live up to expectations, the Patriots can exit the deal in 2027 before that third day and have a dead-cap hit of $12 million for the remaining proration of his $24 million signing bonus.

Funny, none of that was on those social media posts.

So, be aware of the game within a game of contract reporting and realize that they should often be taken with a grain of salt.

And don’t get too dizzy.

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Howard Balzer is beginning his 50th year covering pro football and is in his 21st year as a Pro Football Hall of Fame selector. Perhaps he’s had too many years watching the insanity of free agency.