Projections: How many games will Louisville football win in first season under Jeff Brohm?

All signs point to a good start to Jeff Brohm’s tenure in his hometown. Action Network's Collin Wilson projected the University of Louisville to be a favorite in all 12 of its regular-season games this fall, while BetMGM has Louisville’s win total set at 7.5. ESPN released its Football Power Index in April and gave U of L an 81.9% chance of winning six games and projected its win-loss total at 6.9-5.2. Louisville’s 2023 schedule is favorable for a winning season in Brohm’s debut year leading the program. The Cardinals have seven home games, four true road games and three contests set to take place at NFL stadiums. With the dissolution of divisions in the ACC, U of L doesn't have to play Clemson and Florida State for the first time since 2013. Over the last nine years, the Cardinals went 4-13 against the two storied programs with all four wins coming against the Seminoles. U of L also has the personnel to be one of the better teams in the ACC in 2023. The Cardinals’ defense returns several key players with additions that could make the unit even better than last year’s, which finished the 2022 season ranked No. 11 nationally in scoring defense and No. 24 in the country in total defense. There are some questions offensively — like who among the receivers will emerge as the go-to guy and which tight end will replace Marshon Ford as the starter. But Brohm’s success on offense at Purdue, his reunion with former Boilermaker quarterback Jack Plummer and the returning running back duo of Jawhar Jordan and Maurice Turner should provide some early confidence on that side of the ball. The Cardinals are coming off an 8-5 season, which included a 2-3 start and upset wins over Wake Forest and N.C. State — ranked 10th and 24th, respectively, in the Associated Press poll when they played, though neither team was ranked by the end of the year. Here’s a look at projections for Louisville’s 2023 season: Wins for Cardinals at Georgia Tech (Sept. 1), Murray State (Sept. 7), Indiana in Indianapolis (Sept. 16), Boston College (Sept. 23), at N.C. State (Sept. 29), Virginia Tech (Nov. 4), Virginia (Nov. 9), Kentucky (Nov. 25) Louisville will begin the season with the easiest stretch of its schedule, starting with a road game against Georgia Tech and a neutral contest against Indiana sandwiched between home games against Murray State and Boston College. While the offense still has questions to answer at receiver, Louisville’s defense should be strong enough to help the team win its first five games of the year. While the Cardinals haven’t played Indiana since 1986, the squad will have two games under its belt as players adjust to Brohm’s system, which led Purdue to a 4-2 record against the Hoosiers. Despite Georgia Tech's 2-0 all-time series record against Louisville, the Yellow Jackets are coming off a 5-7 season, which included head coach Geoff Collins' firing one month into the campaign. The Cardinals haven't played Murray State since 2017 but have won six straight games over the Racers. U of L's game against N.C. State won’t be an easy win, especially at Carter Finley Stadium where the Wolfpack has only lost two games in the last three seasons. Despite losing quarterback Devin Leary, now at Kentucky, to the transfer portal, the squad picked up former Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong from the portal and returns linebacker Payton Wilson. But N.C. State lost three of its top four tacklers and leading receiver Thayer Thomas to the NFL, providing the Cardinals with an opportunity to pick up the road victory. By the end of the season, Louisville should be a well-balanced team with enough talent to beat Kentucky for the Governor’s Cup for the first time since 2017. Even though the Wildcats added Leary and return running back JuTahn McClain and leading tackler D'Eryk Jackson, they lost leading rusher Chris Rodriguez and three starting defensive backs from their 2022 campaign. Notre Dame (Oct. 7), at Pittsburgh (Oct. 14), Duke (Oct. 28), at Miami (Nov. 18) Miami, Duke and Notre Dame are led by coaches in their second seasons looking to take the next step with their respective programs. After going 5-7 in his debut season in 2022, Miami coach Mario Cristobal brought in new coordinators and a 2023 recruiting class ranked eighth in the country, according to the 247Sports composite rankings. The Hurricanes also return nine defensive players with starting experience, including safety Kamren Kinchens. All of that, combined with Miami hosting U of L, should yield positive results for the Hurricanes in their November meeting. Marcus Freeman is looking to build on a 9-4 season in Year 2 leading the Fighting Irish. Their offense got a huge boost during the offseason when Sam Hartman, the ACC’s all-time leader in touchdown passes (110) and 300-yard passing games (21), among other records, transferred in from Wake Forest. Although Louisville’s defense shut down Hartman a year ago as a Demon Deacon, Notre Dame is a much different program. The Fighting Irish are ranked 14th and 10th, respectively, in the Athlon and Phil Steele top 25 preseason polls. Even though Notre Dame lost top tight end Michael Mayer to the NFL draft and wide receiver Lorenzo Styles, Jr., the second-leading receiver, to the portal, it returns Jayden Thomas, the program's third-leading receiver last season. The Fighting Irish are 15th in ESPN's SP+ rankings, which measures returning production, recent recruiting and recent history. Duke is also a program on the rise under Mike Elko. Last season, the Blue Devils won nine games, including five against ACC opponents, for the first time since 2014. Offensive lineman Graham Barton, defensive tackle DeWayne Carter and wide receiver Jalon Calhoun, all of whom earned all-ACC honors in 2022, along with quarterback Riley Leonard — an all-ACC honorable mention selection — return for Duke in Year 2 under Elko. Landing local talent:How Jeff Brohm has helped Louisville football close in-state recruiting gap with Kentucky Impact players:5 Louisville football spring transfer portal additions to watch in 2023 season and beyond Projected Louisville football record: 8-4 Given its opponents and talent up and down its roster, Louisville shouldn’t have a problem reaching bowl eligibility for a third straight season and the eight-win mark for the first time since 2018. There will be a natural learning curve with a new coaching staff, but having the toughest stretch of the season — at N.C. State, Notre Dame, at Pitt and Duke — midway through the year gives the Cardinals time to adjust and get comfortable. Reach Louisville football, women's basketball and baseball beat writer Alexis Cubit at acubit@gannett.com and follow her on Twitter at @Alexis_Cubit.