Chris Perkins: Is this Dolphins 53-man roster better than last year’s? Not yet

MIAMI GARDENS — There’s one question you must ask yourself as the Miami Dolphins stand on the doorstep of the 2023 season: are they good enough to win a playoff game?
The ultimate goal is winning the Super Bowl. But the basic goal, the thing the Dolphins must absolutely accomplish to keep the arrow pointing upward, is winning a playoff game.
I don’t think they’re at that point yet.
That doesn’t mean they won’t get there by the time the playoffs arrive.
If All Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey can return by Thanksgiving and get to, say, 80% healthy by the start of the postseason, that might be good enough to deliver a playoff victory.
However, right now I see the Dolphins as a 10-win wild-card round playoff team that loses in the first round of the playoffs.
My outlook is based on the initial 53-man roster, which was finalized Tuesday, basically being the same as a year ago.
I don’t think this Dolphins team is good enough to consistently beat playoff-caliber teams. That was also the case last year when the Dolphins went 2-3 in games against playoff teams that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa started and finished.
The Dolphins view things differently.
“We feel good about the roster we have,” general manager Chris Grier said Wednesday.
Interestingly, no one, players included, said this year’s roster is better than last year’s roster. That’s by design.
“I think we’ve had a special team both years I’ve been here,” backup quarterback Skylar Thompson said.
That’s not a slight toward this year’s roster, it’s a tip of the hat toward last year’s roster, a roster that dealt with a lot of injury problems but still found a way to get to the playoffs.
“A big turning point for a lot of teams is knowing who you are and how to handle adversity,” safety Brandon Jones said.
Something else no one said Wednesday is that expectations are higher for this year’s team than last year’s team. You’d have to think expectations are higher this year, but no one expressly said that.
“Every team is different every year,” guard Robert Hunt said.
Hunt is right.
But here’s my issue with this season’s roster: Grier had an incomplete offseason. He landed defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and Ramsey. Those are hugely positive moves. He also drafted cornerback Cam Smith and running back De’Von Achane (I didn’t agree with either pick, but they appear to be strong selections).
Regardless of those additions, the characteristics of the 2023 Dolphins are unchanged from last year. They’re an offense-first team, and the calling card of the offense is speed.
With wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle having pinpoint-accurate passes thrown their way by Tagovailoa, the offense is headed in the right direction.
But go beneath the surface. The offense is worse at tight end after losing Mike Gesicki, Pro Bowl left tackle Terron Armstead is a year older with one more surgery on his body, offensive line remains a question mark overall, and running back, while capable, is viewed as an area that could stand a serious upgrade judging by the Dolphins’ interest in Dalvin Cook and Jonathan Taylor, among others.
Defensively, they’re fast and athletic under the direction of Fangio, and that’s despite not having the services of Ramsey, which is a real shame because he’s a difference-maker.
However, among edge rushers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb, and cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Kader Kohou, the Dolphins should be able to do good things. Then add in defensive linemen Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler along with safety Jevon Holland, and you see the reasons for excitement and optimism.
The issue is these are basically the same guys that struggled much of last year.
Yes, there’s a new system under Fangio, a system that favors zone defense, not man-to-man, doesn’t rely on the blitz, and keeps two safeties deep.
But the frontline talent, which was almost inadequate last season, remains largely the same.
The Dolphins are hoping their biggest improvements come from within. For that to occur, there’s a long list of things that must happen.
I start that list with Grier supplying the necessary talent, and it’s debatable whether he’s accomplished that goal. The Ramsey injury is a huge derailment, up there with not getting a workhorse running back or not getting better starting-caliber competition for the offensive line during training camp.
The list then points to McDaniel improving as a play-caller (stop throwing to the middle of the field so often, and run the freakin’ ball more) and head coach (reduce penalties, get offensive plays to the huddle faster, win those challenges).
On the field, everything starts with Hill staying healthy, and by extension, Waddle, too. The Dolphins made the playoffs last season with Tagovailoa missing four and half regular-season games.
They don’t make the playoffs last year — or this year — if Hill missed/misses four and a half games. Hill is the best player on the team, Ramsey included.
Then we get to Tagovailoa staying healthy, and then Armstead staying healthy, and then Howard staying healthy.
I hope the Dolphins are better than last year.
Really, I do.
At this point, however, I don’t see it.